Tired of Stock Market Losses? 3 Tips to Know When to Get Out of the Market

Tired of seeing losses in your investments? Ever sell at the bottom? Do you wish you could’ve gotten out sooner? Let’s face it. Most of us are terrible at timing the market. But that shouldn’t be an excuse to head for the hills. Wouldn’t it make more sense to know when not to be involved in the market, and more importantly, when you should get back in? Picking when to enter into the market can be just as important as what you pick.

Of course, it may seem easier to avoid the market altogether by just investing in bonds or real estate. But getting out of the market forever is not necessarily the best thing to do. After all, the stock market has outperformed the bond market and real estate over the long term. And the most likely way for us to fulfill our investment plans is by getting the highest possible returns necessary without too much risk.

Besides, unless another investment vehicle becomes a better reflection of economic growth like the stock market, I am afraid we are stuck in investing in the market in order to get better returns in good times and bad. Or are we?

Knowing when to get in

While I have earlier suggested what investments we should focus on, we didn’t discuss when it’s a good time to buy. And that’s very important to know. Think about it. Do you just go out and buy a car any day? No, you wait for a sale or go at the end of the month when the dealers need to make their sales quota. How about clothes? Again, most wait for a sale. This is the same concept you should have with investing in mutual funds, ETFs or stocks. You wait for a sale. Here are 3 indicators I use that can help me determine when the market on “sale.”

Indicator #1: The economy

Unfortunately, “red hot sales” in the market are more or less dependent on economic growth. For example if we expect an economic slowdown over the next 6 months or longer, the stock market will most likely sell off. Why? An economic slowdown means most companies will grow less. Would you pay more for a stock in a company that will grow less? Not me!

So, one indicator to let us know whether we may want stay in the market is to ask ourselves if the economy is going to grow, to slow or to maintain its current course. To figure this answer out, you could talk with your broker or read some monthly finance magazines. Magazines like Money, Forbes or Klinger’s will have columnists dedicated to writing a one pager discussing the economic outlook. Remember, don’t make this complicated. You are just looking for a couple of professional opinions, so you can make your informed decision.

Unfortunately, looking at the economy is not good enough, since this is a very slow and vague indicator of how to handle our money. I think we can do better…

Indicator #2: Market Volatility

There is an old Wall Street adage: Stocks tend to sell off 3 to 4 times faster than they climb. Why? There are many people who already own stocks who need to get out, and are looking for buyers. No one wants to be the first one to buy when a stock or the market seems to be in trouble. Would you? So stocks fall faster than they rise.

When stocks sell off faster, volatility (which is a fancy word for measuring how much a stock’s price moves) increases. When the entire stock market sells off, the volatility across many stocks start to rise. To help see this increase in volatility across the board more clearly, volatility indicators, like the put/call ratio and the VIX, were created and can be tracked much like an index.

Here’s how it works. If the market has sold off recently, I would see a rise in the VIX index. The more the market goes down, the higher the VIX indicator climbs, just like playing on a seesaw when you were a kid. When the VIX rises to a certain point, I exit the market. I make it that simple! In my guide, I go through an example using the VIX and show specific points and strategy I use to get in and get of the market. Obviously, my timing is not perfect, but I also miss long term corrections too!

While this is a good and clear indicator, it only works when the markets get more volatile. What if you want to get in the market when it is calm or starting to rise? There are shorter term indicators that can be used.

Indicator #3: Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis is just looking at your stock’s price and volume movements on a graph, and then drawing a conclusion. It basically tries to predict future price movements from previous price movements. For example, let’s say if the stock market had a big run up or just has experienced a big sell off, you can use a technical indicator to help you determine if or when the stock market may turn around.

Unfortunately, there are literally dozens of indicators to learn, none of them work perfectly and it takes time and commitment for you to master. But for me, I do my best to focus just on combining just a few long term indicators discussed in my guide. While there is no panacea to which technical indicators work best, I found that using a combination of few indicators proves to be better than the alternative of just simply guessing when to get in or out of my positions. Many discount brokers will also offer their clients free education to help them out.

Putting it altogether

By taking a look at the overall health of the economy, a few volatility indicators and some technical analysis, I am able to better determine when to get out of my positions. In fact, I use the combination of all three. It may not be perfect, but following each approach has really helped me determine when the market goes on sale or when it’s time to get back in.

The next time you decide to get into an ETF or a stock, first ask yourself at what point should get in. If the answer is “because it feels right,” think about better ways to make that decision. And as always, have a stop program to make sure small losses don’t become catastrophes. The best investors in the world tend to be better because they not only know what to get into, but often when. Become a better investor!

Ready to Make Some Money? Don’t Pass on This Stock Market Tip – The Money is There For the Taking!

The stock market has “crashed” as of late and this has sent many investors scrambling for the exits. So many people have seen the slumping economy and thought to themselves that the world was coming to an end. This fear has caused the market to fall far lower than it ever should have and know is the opportunity to cash in on other peoples irrational behavior.

Now don’t get me wrong – the stock market should have gone down. The financial system has some major problems and the economy as a whole has faced some struggles. But the market has gone done close to 50% – a far larger drop than the economic factors should have caused.

Fear and emotional responses of investors play a massive role in stock prices. The term “herding” refers to a group of people simply following the masses and acting in the way others are. This is exactly what has happened in the stock market.

People have read horror story after horror story about the markets and seen other selling and have simple followed the crowd. This selling pressure has resulted in a far larger drop than what should have ever happened.

Here’s the good news though – you can know jump in the stock market and take advantage of this mispricing. In recent times, the markets have been experiencing slow upward growth and although there is pessimism that remains, the fear and mass selling is no longer playing the same role. This points to the bottom of the downswing.

Now’s the perfect time to catch the markets and profit from their upswing. Gradually, positive economic news is being released and the markets need to rebound and correct the mispricing that this fear has caused. If you get in now, you will catch it at the perfect time. And it’s very likely that the opposite will occur – investors will be overly excited about the rebound which will cause an even greater upswing.

Bottom line, don’t be cautious to invest in stocks! This is truly a “once in a lifetime” opportunity that will make you a tidy profit if you take action.

Why is Understanding the Stock Market So Hard?

First on the list of recommended preparatory tasks is to obtain a book which covers the Dow theory. This isn’t lightweight reading, but will surely serve to make you a smarter investor. Just as history repeats itself, stock market trends do too. Being able to ascertain what part of which type of cycle the market is currently experiencing is of great help in understanding the stock market and anticipating favorable conditions for your money.

Using the rolling stock strategy requires that you be well versed in stochastics. Stochastics is at the crux of this strategy. The so-called penny stocks often have a short term and repeating cycle of rising and falling prices which stay in an overall, consistent price range. The best candidates are those with an upward trend, where the price gradually rises, while sustaining a predictable rolling cycle. You buy just at the point where the stock has bottomed and is now on the rise. The safest strategy is to sell before the cycle peaks. You can make money this way, but you must have familiarity with the Dow theory, as well as stochastics. In any case, understanding the stock market as thoroughly as possible, is essential to your success.

Day-trading is one strategy that requires courage, expertise and a ‘type A’ personality. The day trader follows several stocks at once, looking for that ‘perfect moment’ to plunk down his money, selling sometimes within minutes. With the purchase of a large number of shares, the difference of even an eighth of a point rise in the stock value can result in a large profit. Then again, the day trader can just as easily suffer a tremendous loss. Some brokerages do not execute the sell order quickly enough, particularly on days of heavy activity. Understanding the stock market well may not be enough in this case, as the situation is out of your control. Day-trading is a risky and highly stressful strategy.

No matter what your strategy, if you’re a small investor, you must know that understanding the stock market means that you are aware of some very obscure influences which can make your ‘perfect pick’ imperfect. A well-known consultant, who gives seminars on stock investments, brought this element into sharp relief for a group of students.

The assignment involved one particular stock which each student was to investigate and give their opinion of this investment, citing reasons why they would or would not. The stock was a ‘good pick’, according to all the participants. The consultant then explained the factor which no one had uncovered in the investigation phase which actually made this good-looking stock a disaster as an investment. As it turned out, every 20 years, a ‘red tide’ appeared off the coast of Peru, ruining the product and thus, the stock value for the entire season.

Along with your self educating in all things stock market, you should begin to test your understanding of the stock market. There are many websites which give a daily list of stocks for you to peruse and make a prediction of whether they go up or down in a certain time period. Others ask you to predict which will have the largest percentage rise, also in a certain time frame. It may take a considerable while before your predictions are, for the most part, accurate. This strategy of testing your understanding of the stock market will save you a bundle of money. You may decide the stock market is not your niche! Understanding the stock market is a difficult and time consuming effort.

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